This morning's NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) link here
ANZ analysts on the report, this in brief from a longer piece:
- Today’s data is more evidence showing that the labour market and inflation are probably even further beyond the RBNZ’s targets than they (or we) thought when the November MPS forecasts were published. And, the tight labour market is only exacerbating underlying inflation pressures at this point. The policy prescription is clear – interest rates need to rise further in order to tame the once-slumbering inflation beast.
- But with the economy struggling against supply constraints and COVID disruption, and confidence falling, downside risks to economic growth are very real.
The next scheduled Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting is February 23. ANZ expect an even more hawkish RBNZ:
- As inflation pressures continue to exceed expectations, it only increases the likelihood that the RBNZ will feel the need to signal and then deliver more hikes (ie a higher OCR track in the February MPS).
(ps. OCR is Official Cash Rate. The 'track' refers to the likely path ahead for rate hikes.)
AUD/NZD weekly chart. If the ANZ view is more widely adopted I suspect this cross will come under renewed selling pressure: