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Powell: We need to see growth moving down from the very high levels we saw last year
Powell: We need to see growth moving down from the very high levels we saw last year
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Comments from Powell at a WSJ event
Adam Button
Tuesday, 17/05/2022 | 18:06 GMT-0
17/05/2022 | 18:06 GMT-0
- Reports that there's broad support for having 50 bps on the table at the next two meetings
- Expresses uncertainty about the economy
- Financial conditions overall have tightened significantly
- We need the supply side to catch up
- We need to see growth moving down from the very high levels we saw last year, but still positive
- We need to see clear and convincing evidence that inflation
Inflation
Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation.How Does Inflation Affect Forex?The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market.
Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation.How Does Inflation Affect Forex?The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market.
Read this Term pressures are abating
- If we don't see that, we'll have to consider moving more aggressively
- If we do see that happening, we could move at a slower pace
- The economy is strong and well-positioned to withstand tighter monetary policy
- Says they're watching China and effects of Ukraine war very closely
- We don't know where neutral is, we don't know where 'tight' is
- We will look at changes in the economy and financial conditions at each meeting
- We won't hesitate to go beyond neutral if needed. We'll go to the point where we can view inflation coming down
- Inflation is way to high and we're going to bring it down
- We're not setting policy on the assumption that the supply side will improve
- We'd still have a strong labor market if unemployment "moves up a few ticks"
- The economy doesn't work for anyone without price stability
- There could be some pain involved to restoring price stability
- We need to see inflation coming down in a convincing way, this is not a time for tremendously nuanced readings on inflation
- There is a real possibility that globalization will go into reverse to some extent
- There's an overwhelming need to get inflation under control
Risk assets have legged moderately lower and the US dollar is higher on his comments.
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