Marion Kohler, the Reserve Bank of Australia's Head of Economic Analysis, speaking at the Australian Business Economists Annual Forecasting Conference in Sydney.

Headlines via Reuters:

  • Inflation coming down but still too high
  • It will take some time for inflation to get back within the 2-3% target range
  • Expect it to return to target range in 2025, and to the midpoint in 2026
  • Services inflation high and broadly based, likely to decline only gradually
  • Expect economic growth to remain subdued in the near term
  • High inflation, higher tax payments and interest rates have significantly reduced household incomes
  • Most labour market indicators still look ‘tight’ relative to historical norms
  • Seeing signs of easing wage pressures in some industries, particularly in business services
  • Expect much of adjustment in labour market to happen via drop in average hours worked

There is not anything surprising in these remarks. Kohler hedge a little on those 'return to target' inflation time projections"

  • "I'd like to stress that there is substantial uncertainty around forecasts that far out"

Kohler also said that the expected slowdown in inflation would require a recovery in productivity. Australian productivity has been very subdued in the last few years, but Kohler is optimistic it'd improve once temporary factors related to the COVID-19 pandemic played out.

Huh. We'll see.

Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Economic) Marion Kohler 13 November 2023