The Reserve Bank of Australia statement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time:
- 0330 GMT, 2330 US Eastern time
- We expect another hawkish pause.
- The post-meeting statement will likely note the labour market is still tight but easing and that inflation remains too high.
- We suspect higher petrol prices and the associated upside risks to consumers’ inflation expectations will also rate a mention.
- The RBA is widely expected to be on hold at Governor Bullock’s first meeting as governor. That is our call as well.
- Although the Monthly CPI Indicator did show sticky services inflation, we think the RBA is likely to wait for confirmation in the full Q3 CPI on 25 October.
- The last RBA Minutes noted that the case for hiking rested “on the expectation that inflation will remain above the Bank’s target for a prolonged period and the risk that this period might be extended. This could occur if productivity growth does not pick up as anticipated or if high services price inflation is more persistent than expected ”. That risk looks like it is being realised given poor productivity (GDP per hour is back to 2016 levels) and services inflation being sticky, even before potential impacts from the lower AUD and from higher oil prices.
- NAB sees the RBA hiking rates in November to 4.35%.
- RBA policy decision due Tuesday, 3 October 2023 (Sydney time) - "a certain hold"
- RBA policy meeting - on hold expected
- Rising Australian inflation, "its not safe to conclude that the RBA rate cycle has peaked"