Earlier previews:
RBA monetary policy meeting Tuesday September 6 - preview (TL;DR +50bp hike coming up)
Poll of analysts - RBA to hike its cash rate by 50bp on Tuesday 6 September
A few snippets.
NAB:
- The RBA continues to normalise rates and we see another 100bp of rate rises this year, to 2.85%.
- This alone is likely to put pressure on consumers
Nomura:
- From here, we expect the RBA to move to a steadily restrictive policy setting, but think it might slow the pace of hikes once it reaches a roughly neutral setting next week
- I would concede that with Fed and other central bank officials giving hawkish communication, the risk around our forecast likely tilts to the upside, i.e., a higher cash rate or more aggressive moves than we are forecasting
ANZ
- We expect the RBA to lift the cash rate by 50bp in September and signal more rate hikes to come.
- Q2 GDP is expected to come in at +0.8% q/q, with upside risk.
- We don’t think Tuesday’s 50bp hike will the last such move by the RBA. Given the strength of inflationary pressures we think the RBA will want to take the cash rate some way above what it thinks is the bottom of the neutral range.
We get the decision on Tuesday 6 September, along with Governor Lowe's statement, at 0430 GMT.
