National Australia Bank on the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting today, Tuesday, 7 February 2023:
- The RBA is expected to deliver another 25bp increase to take the Cash Rate to 3.35%, an outcome expected by almost everyone surveyed by the main media outlets (a couple are picking no change, no-one a 50-point increase).
- Money markets have about 20bps priced.
- We expect the RBA to keep similar guidance to the December meeting and keep a hawkish bias given domestic inflation pressures, but also acknowledge the improved global inflation backdrop.
- Near-term wages and underlying inflation forecasts need to be revised higher in Friday’s SoMP but we may get a hint of this in the Statement today.
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RBA statement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time,
- which is 0330 GMT
- and 10.30pm US ET
-
Earlier:
- RBA meet February 7 - preview. Poll finds 30 of 31 analysts expect a 25bp rate hike.
- Deutsche Bank forecast 25bp rate hikes from the RBA in February, March, May and August
- CBA forecast one more 25bp RBA rate hike, terminal rate of 3.35% (there's a 'but' though)
- RBA meet on February 7 - preview - 25bp rate hike cemented in, then another in March
- RBA "Shadow Board" recommends a +25bp interest rate rise on February 7
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The rate rise cycle so far from the RBA:
