From the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Survey of expectations - re inflation

  • One year expectations 4.86%
  • 2 year 3.07%


• According to the survey, the Official Cash Rate (OCR) is expected to rise 50 basis points this quarter to 3.0%.

• OCR expected to be at 3.5% at the end of the June 2023 quarter.

• Annual GDP growth expected to be 1.49% in the next year, but expected to rise to 1.89% in the following year.

• One-year-ahead, and two-year-ahead inflation expectations declined to 4.86% and 3.07%, respectively.

• Long-term inflation expectations remain anchored close to the midpoint of the RBNZ’s target band range of 1 – 3%.

• One-year-ahead unemployment expectations rise to 3.77%, an increase from the current unemployment rate of 3.3%.

The commentary from the RBNZ (summarised above) show the Bank is comfortable with inflation expectations. Although 1 and 2 year are both rising above the upper limit of the 2 to 3% target band the RBNZ say longer term expectations are close to the midpoint of the band.

r expectations 4.86%   2 year 3