RBNZ Orr says it will be a shallow recession

The RBNZ rate hike today (and hawkish statement):

• RBNZ raise cash interest rate target by +75bp to 4.25%, as widely expected
• NZD/USD higher after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raises its cash rate target by 75 bp

• Headlines greeting the RBNZ rate hike: "New Zealand delivers its biggest rate hike ever"

• Responses to the RBNZ +75bp rate hike - ASB forecast cash rate at 5.5% by April 2023

RBNZ Governor Orr press conference now:

• it will be a shallow recession
• economic activity currently strong
• spending currently strong
• inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term expectations must come down
• wage expectations must also decline

Other officials are speaking also:

• the neutral interest rate has increased
• monetary conditions are not as contractionary
• more time was spent discussing +75 or +100 than was spent discussing +50
• we are talking about 2 or 3 quarters of shallow recession