Reserve Bank of New Zealand updated forecasts for the path ahead, see the:

  • official cash rate at 4.57% in March 2023 (previously at 4.03%)
  • official cash rate at 5.5% in December 2023 (previously at 4.1%)
  • twi nzd at around 70.0% in December 2023 (previously at 71.7%)
  • annual cpi 5.0% by December 2023 (previously at 3.8%)
  • official cash rate at 5.5% in march 2024 (previously at 4.09%)
  • official cash rate at 4.35% in December 2025


From the Minutes:

  • Committee gave consideration to an increase in the ocr of 75 or 100 basis points
  • Members agreed that a larger increase in the ocr was appropriate
  • Members agreed ocr needed to reach a level where it was confident it would reduce actual inflation to within the target range
  • Members agreed that this level had increased since the time of the august statement
  • Committee agreed that the level of settlement cash balances is not a source of unexpected inflationary pressure
  • Members viewed the risks to inflation pressure from fiscal policies as skewed to the upside


Background to this is here: