The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) runs a 'shadow board' of analysts. The Shadow Board is independent of the RBNZ and does not represent what the RBNZ is going to do but rather what their view is that the RBNZ should do. That is, the Shadows do not preview what they think will happen, but what they think should happen.

As for this week's meeting the view of the Shadows is the same as the market consensus, ie a 0.5% rate hike from the RBNZ.

In Brief comments from the NZIER, highlighting strong inflation as the reason the RBNZ are staying on their tightening path:

the majority view was that a 50 basis points OCR increase in the August meeting is warranted, with only two members recommending a different quantum of tightening (25 basis points and 75 basis points each). Shadow Board members highlighted the strong inflation pressures in the New Zealand economy as justification for their recommendation for further tightening over the coming year.

Full report can be found here.

nzier shadow rbnz 15 August 2022