Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr

The market is pricing in a 91% chance of a 50 bps RBNZ hike to 3.50% on October 5.

Could we be seeing the start of a pivot? The Fed and bond market are certainly doing a lot of the work for global central bankers.


  • Still a little bit more to do in terms of tightening
  • Demand will be declining

I don't know why the Fed couldn't have gone with this kind of rhetoric. It's clear from so many indicators that demand and bottlenecks are improving, yet they're tilting to even-more hawkish rhetoric.