Mary Daly
SF Fed Pres.Mary Daly speaking at NABE
  • More work to do on inflation
  • We are at a good place.
  • Remarkable progress on inflation is not victory
  • Slowing inflation without significant decline in unemployment is unequivocally good news
  • Need more time, data to be sure of continued progress on inflation
  • Risks ahead include slower inflation progress, faltering labor market
  • Fed needs to resist temptation to act quickly when patience is needed
  • Uncertain whether better productivity numbers will continue
  • Disruptions in Red Sea, Panama Canal could be a new source of risk
  • Ongoing economic momentum is a risk to inflation progress
  • Sustainable price stability and full employment are the goals
  • A big part of the story is supply. Bottlenecks have fallen. Has helped good price inflation to go back down
  • US workers came back to work last year.
  • Anticipation its highest level in two decades
  • At the same time we saw a surge immigration
  • We didn't just get more worker, the workers were more productive.
  • The decline in inflation is not just come from supply, the decline has also come from demand
  • 2/3 of core PCE inflation came from the demand side.
  • Inflationary expectations of households is at pre-pandemic levels
  • Businesses inflation expectations has also improved
  • The risks are more balanced.
  • So far labor conditions have eased without reducing jobs.

At the start of the speech, the major indices are trading at:

  • Dow Industrial Average -6.48 points or -0.02% at 38769
  • S&P unchanged at 5029.67
  • NASDAQ index -36.21 points or -0.23% at 15869.14

The two year yield at 4.669% and the yield is at 4.300%