Snippet from Stan Chart on euro-swiss:

Looking for the Swiss franc to

  • weaken against the EUR as 2023 progresses, inflation declines and risk appetite is restored

We doubt that intervening to push CHF stronger is the SNB’s preferred outcome but the threat is credible enough as long as inflation is a concern. For the time being investors will likely be reluctant to fight the SNB on CHF strength or use the CHF as the short leg against higher beta currencies

The risk for CHF appreciation is further SNB hawkishness, an unexpected deterioration in EU energy supplies, political tensions within the EU or easing of other geopolitical issues

CHF is likely to remain among the lowest yielders globally so the downside risk would be any risk-positive shock that pushed yields higher globally, leaving Swiss rates behind. The other downside risk is a material improvement in EU energy security or deterioration in Switzerland’s

EUR/CHF weekly candles

eruchf weekly 24 November 2022