I've been posting this little pic as a non-PhD guide to what the RBA will raise its cash rate at its first meeting of the year coming up on February 7:

rba cash rate inflation 24 January 2023

Yeah, the cash rate is 3.1%. The inflation target is 2 to 3%. Inflation is 7.3%. I ain't no PhD but even a humble spot monkey can see that something's gotta give (*and that'd be the cash rate, it needs to go higher.

Anyway, that pic is still there but it needs to be updated due to today's data:

rba cash inflaiton

It took all my self-control not to stick an exclamation mark after those updated CPI numbers.


If you have been calling for a February pause and those shocking new CPI numbers are not enough to convince you the RBA will be hiking by 25bp, go and check out the RBA trimmed mean inflation forecast. Today's result is higher than what the RBA is forecasting.