Bank of Montreal have previewed next week's US CPI data, due on Tuesday November 14 at 1330 GMT (0830 US Eastern time):

This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.

  • The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result.
  • The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
us cpi October preview 09 November 2023


  • the latest slide in U.S. oil prices follows a serious run at the $100 figure in September. Rising OPEC exports, a large build in U.S. crude stocks, and concerns about China's economy have taken the shine off black gold.
  • Meantime, gasoline prices are mining eight•month lows.
  • The slide in fuel costs has two important economic effects. They support spending, providing resilience in the face of high interest rates. And, they reduce inflation, with next week's CPI report likely to see the headline rate dip back into the low-3s.
  • Together with an upturn in productivity, the Fed couldn't have asked for much more to help it achieve a soft landing.

Bolding is mine, BMO highlighting the two factors the Fed doesn't have any influence over that nevertheless have contributed to the expected soft landing. Falling inflation and a cushioned landing for the economy. What can hold stocks back in that sort of an environment?