An interesting way to look at it
Cryptocurrencies aren't a craze, they're a viral phenomenon.
That's how Barclays looks at them and notes that they've spread like a virus, but might fade like one too. The team of analysts there led by Joseph Abate says viruses make for three types of people:
- The susceptible
- The infected
- The immune
"Like the infection analogy, the population divides into three groups: 'susceptible' individuals who are vulnerable but not yet infected; 'infected' individuals; and those who are 'immune.,'" the report said. "Also like infection, transmission - especially to those with 'fear of missing out' - is by word-of-month, via blogs, news reports and personal anecdotes."
Exposure is the first stage and at this point, they estimate that 90% of people in developed countries who might be 'infected' have been exposed.
"Most potential 'hosts' (Bitcoin investors) in developed economies already are aware of Bitcoin (have been exposed to the 'virus'); 2) only a small share of developed populations are susceptible to speculation ('infection'); and 3) the falling ratio of current to prior holders suggests a rising 'recovered' share of the population," Barclays writes.
"As a result, we believe the speculative froth phase of crypto currency investment - and perhaps peak prices - may have passed."
I think the onus is on crypto now to demonstrate real-world uses and utility -- and not just for early-adopters and tech-savvy people. Ultimately, for something to have utility it needs to do something better, save time or save money and to change people's habits, the benefits need to be significant.
Since it's Wednesday, note that Bitcoin has really struggled late in the week since early March.
