It helps to have a bias barometer and the 100 hour MA is helping to define the bias for bitcoin

In a trading intstrument like Bitcoin, it is especially helpful for traders to have a bias barometer. A bias barometer is a technical level that "the market" respects.

For those who follow my analysis on Forexlive.com, the 100 bar MA is a key bias barometer. Stay below it is bearish. Move above it and the bias shifts more to the upside.

Looking at the hourly chart above of bitcoin on Coinbase, the price has done a good job of using the 100 bar MA as a bias barometer.

IN the chart above, when the price was waffling up and down at the end of October and into November, the price moved above the 100 bar MA (blue line) and the price moved higher. When the price moved back below, the price moved lower. The problem is the moves did not go very far. The market was non-trending.

However, non trending markets eventually transition to trending markets. So when the price started to show more downside momentum away from the 100 hour MA on November 14th, it was a clue that the sellers were taking control.

Since then, there was an attempt to rally on November 18 and into November 19th, but when the price momentum to the downside picked up steam on November 19th, the selling intensified once again.

More recently, the price has tried to move up and test the MA line (blue line) on Saturday, Sunday and again in the early hours of today, sellers leaned ahead of the barometer, and sold. Sellers/bears remain in control.

For traders until that MA is broken to the upside, the bias will remain bearish. For longs/buyers if the price cannot get above that line (and stay above it), they are not in control. It is as simple as that.

Where can it go?

Well the low from Sunday and today will be eyed. Today's low came in at $3508. The low on Sunday came in at $3456. Other than that, a lower trend line on the hourly chart comes in around $3300 (and moving lower). Buyers may come in against those levels and take profit/put a toe in the water, but even so, the 100 hour MA would still be in play and a level to get and stay above if there is to be any meaningful reversal higher.

It is always nice to have a bias barometer for your trading - especially in risky/volatile instruments like bitcoin.