Sometimes the reaction is the tell
Crypto bulls are not happy with me
The classic expression is that: "The bigger they are, the harder they fall".
For markets, it might be "the harder they fight, the weaker they are."
I've written about markets for more than a decade and often the articles that generate the most-surprisingly lively reactions are the when a market is weak and you say it's going lower. Or write something negative about something that's already beaten up.
It's true that the most-ardent defenders of something are those who have suffered the most pain.
That brings me to something I wrote about crypto today. Bitcoin has been falling for a week and it's down almost 25% in the past month and 41% since the June spike. The bulls are licking their wounds.
Today's decline is probably just a continuation for the building bearish sentiment after the failure to break the 38.2% retracement of the Sept fall. Bitcoin is the most-technical market I know of; probably because there is a dearth of fundamental news.
However I wrote about a tangential fundamental story today as US authorities used Bitcoin to bust 338 people who used it to pay for child porn on a South Korean website that was one of the largest of its kind. It highlights that people who were using Bitcoin thought they had some level of anonymity.
Was the news responsible for today's 3% fall in Bitcoin and a similar decline in the larger crypto space? No one knows. It's the same in every market. You can't get into the head of every seller.
What was different? The post generated a surprising amount of anger. The bulls tell me that everyone knows Bitcoin isn't anonymous. Well the 338 people who are in jail now certainly didn't know. In addition, there are still many ways to make Bitcoin anonymous and crypto is used in illicit activities (so is the dollar, I know).
Without getting deeper into the argument, I think the takeaway is the reaction. it's the kind of reaction you often see in a market that's weak.
I'm going to take all the anger directed at me as a sign of growing FUD. I'm not writing anything that hasn't been said before. The vitriol is probably a barometer of the jitters in the market, and weakness.
Watch out for a break of $7700.