USDJPY stuck in the mud. When will it break free? The price action will tell us.

Author: Greg Michalowski | Category: Education

Last week's range was the lowest since January 2012

The USDJPY is stuck in the mud.

Last week, the range for the pair was only 52-53 pips wide. That was the most narrow trading week since January 2012. Its is 2019 now, so that makes it a 7+ year record.  That's a long time and says the market is non-trending.

Last week's range was the lowest since January 2012
Non-trending leads to trending (it is either one or the other)   Looking at the hourly chart, the 110.55 to 110.94 is the "Red Box" that has confined the range over the last 3+ days.  The low is above the low from last week which was down at 110.42.   We currently trade at 110.83. 

If the price is to extend one way or the other, getting out of the "Red Box" is what traders will look for. The next thing they will look for is staying out of the "box" and showing momentum.   Absent that, and we remain in the mud.

I know that is somewhat obvious, but we as traders, need to recognize what is happening and then anticipate what might happen next.   

What I know is the price action tends not to sit in a 52 pip range for too long (or more recently a 40 pip range). At some point, there will be a shove that breaks the market higher or lower (PS. the price is doing nothing because "the market" does not know what to do next...yet).

Is there any other levels to eye other than the extremes?

The 100 and 200 hour MA (blue and green lines at 110.724 and 110. 683) tends to see the price action move above and below in non-trending markets. However, it still defines the bias. Trade above is more bullish. Move below is more bearish. 

Today, the price last tried to trade below,but that move failed near the 3 day lows.  However,  note what happened on the move back higher.  The price used the 200 hour MA (green line) as support and has moved higher over the last 3 hours or so.  

The buyers are making a play. They are more in control. Can they push above and outside the "Red Box"?  No one really knows (it might fail in which case buyer turn to sellers), but traders can anticipate the future from the wiggles and waggles from the intraday technical clues and hope that the bigger shove is just around the corner.

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