Here's three things we can expect to see in the run up to, and over, the FOMC

It's been nearly 12 years since the Fed last entered a cycle of rate hikes and they're due to start again this week. What can we expect?

1. Beware bulls bearing gifts

At some point in the run up to Wednesday we're going to see the dollar get a bid on. FFR futures currently point to a 74% chance that the Fed makes a move on Wednesday. That's off the highs but still well up. Most of the market is pricing in a hike but there will be late comers to the party and I expect to see USDJPY getting all bullish into the meeting

2. Look for the FOMC pop 'n' drop

If most of the market is already onside with a hike then that leaves little room for large gains. Even the very last to the party will struggle to keep any rally going, unless they're helped by a hawkish message. Longs will use any pop to wring out the last few pips of the Fed trade and will then likely take profit. There's a big crowd and the exit door will be shrinking over the following days

3. Pub's open

Look for the Thursday and Friday to be when most of the market starts squaring up in earnest. Once the Fed is over the market is going to switch very quickly to looking at the holidays. The following week is only going to be 3 1/2 working days and many people will have called it quits on the Friday, but there's still plenty of data on the calendar. Final Q3 GDP from the US and UK, Durable goods, US housing numbers. They are likely to all be ignored in the wind down. That could mean some choppy conditions if the data has some surprises as liquidity will be very light and that won't be the conditions for getting into moves on the back of data. No one is going to be trading the next Fed hike if durable goods come in strongly a day before markets close for the holidays

Unless you're in a position and waiting for the Fed to give you an exit point, there's going to be few chances to grab a big trade in the run up, barring any surprises. For me the best new trade I'll be looking at is to fade any big pop in the buck on the announcement

Do not underestimate this event though. As I said at the top, this is going to put the Fed on a new path for interest rates and it's a big deal. This is going to be one of the most important central bank press conferences over the last 10 years. Do not take that lightly

There's still time for some toys to be thrown out the pram