4 reasons the USD will stay strong
HSBC's FX strategists remain bullish on the US dollar citing four factors in particular:
- the risk-off USD should capitalise on a slowing global economy
- the USD remains the high-yield play in G10
- policy rate changes are unlikely to undermine the USD although the Fed has become more dovish recently
- the market is already long USD, but the trade is neither stretched nor crowded
And, further from HSBC, this from the equity research folks, but of relevance to forex:
They look for recovery of global manufacturing
- PMI Economic soft data continues to drift lower … many risks still on the horizon … global trade and heavily distorted data in the US due to the government shutdown, … PMIs will be worth watching in the coming months. A stabilisation or recovery seems, however, more likely than a further plunge into recessionary territory.
They look for improving China on trade talk progress:
- China's Manufacturing PMI fell further on the contractionary side to a reading of 48.3 in January … 2019 could be a challenging year for the Chinese economy, there are signs of optimism surrounding the US-China trade talks
Bolding above is mine. HSBC do seem to erring on the side of optimism.