4 reasons the USD will stay strong

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

HSBC's FX strategists remain bullish on the US dollar citing four factors in particular:

  1. the risk-off USD should capitalise on a slowing global economy
  2. the USD remains the high-yield play in G10
  3. policy rate changes are unlikely to undermine the USD although the Fed has become more dovish recently
  4. the market is already long USD, but the trade is neither stretched nor crowded
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And, further from HSBC, this from the equity research folks, but of relevance to forex:

They look for recovery of global manufacturing
  • PMI Economic soft data continues to drift lower …  many risks still on the horizon … global trade and heavily distorted data in the US due to the government shutdown, …  PMIs will be worth watching in the coming months. A stabilisation or recovery seems, however, more likely than a further plunge into recessionary territory.
They look for improving China on trade talk progress:
  • China's Manufacturing PMI fell further on the contractionary side to a reading of 48.3 in January … 2019 could be a challenging year for the Chinese economy, there are signs of optimism surrounding the US-China trade talks 
Bolding above is mine. HSBC do seem to erring on the side of optimism.

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