A single cut is totally priced in

A single cut is totally priced in

The Fed funds futures market continues to imply that a cut is fully priced in but now it's a question of 25 basis points or 50 bps.

After Powell's comments, the market is pressing the issue and is now primed for a 75% chance of a 50 basis point cut. If that cut doesn't come in March, it's fully priced in for April, with a 14% chance of a 14% third cut by then.

By this time next year, nearly four cuts are now priced in.

The caveat here is that these numbers are changing fast. A week ago there was just an 8% chance of a cut priced in and yesterday there was just an 85% chance of a single cut.