A big Thursday coming up in Australia - monthly jobs report due (preview)

An earlier preview of the Australian labour market data due 21 March 2019 is here:

• via ANZ

Expectations etc.:

• Employment Change K expected +15K, prior +39.1K
• Unemployment Rate % expected 5.0%, prior 5.0%
• Full Time Employment Change K prior was +65.4K
• Part Time Employment Change K prior was -26.3K
• Participation Rate 65.7% expected %, prior was 65.7%

This preview via TD:

• After recent strong jobs growth (+124k jobs in 4mths) we look for a pause. Feb is strong in raw terms but seasonals account for this reliable pop. Flat employment leaves the annual pace at 2.2%/y (mkt -5k to +30k). Combined with a lower particip'n rate of 65.6% leaves the unemployment rate at 5% yet again. If the part rate remains at 65.7% expect a pop in the u-rate to 5.2%

Barclays:

• February labor market report (Thursday) that should show an unchanged unemployment rate at 5.0% and continued job growth, albeit at a slower rate than January (Barclays: 8k; consensus:15k).

NAB:

• The RBA has clearly stated that the labour data are key to its view on policy and we think that a deterioration in unemployment would increase the likelihood of a rate cut.
• NAB expects unchanged employment in February (mkt: +15k) after a sharp 39k rise in January. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 5% (mkt: 5%), but with risk of a 5.1% print.