Yesterday's headline was negative but test results are coming
It may be time to bet on medical technology. All the smartest people in the field are working at breakneck pace on coronavirus.
A timeline on a vaccine is simply too long. There is no treatment that's going to 'cure' coronavirus but if there's something that can halve the mortality and shorten the length of illness, it would turn the market.
Late yesterday, there was some bad news. A Chinese study reported that a cocktail of HIV drugs (Ritonavir/Lopinavir) didn't work, at least not for critically ill patients.
However there are signs of optimism elsewhere. One is anti-malaria drug chloroquine.
In mid-February, Sun Yanrong, deputy head of the China National Centre for Biotechnology Development, said this drug was under clinical trial in at least 10 hospitals.
According to Sun, patients treated with chloroquine saw a greater drop in fever, an improvement in their lung scans and required a shorter time to recover compared to similar groups.
French doctors are among those who are also experimenting with the drug. Health minister said widespread tests are now underway after early successful tests. In a video, researchers said they "had seen a rapid and effective speeding up of their healing process, and a sharp decrease in the amount of time they remained contagious." There is also evidence it prevents worse infections among patients who are treated early.
Another treatment that's showing promise is Gilead, which is testing remdesivir in trials with some results due at the end of the month. Shares of the company are breaking out today, suggesting someone is either optimistic or knows something.
There are two other drugs/combos that are also showing promise and the WHO has now sanctioned four big trials over 10 countries.
"Multiple small trials with different methodologies may not give us the clear strong evidence we need about which treatments help to save lives," WHO leader Tedros said during a briefing in Geneva.
In terms of the market, a treatment isn't going to make this go away but if we can lower mortality to more-acceptable levels there is visibility towards restarting the economy. At this point, that's enough.
