GS estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 180k in January, citing:

  • weather likely contributed to last month's blockbuster report, January was also relatively warm and dry during the reference week
  • The BLS has also clarified that furloughed and unpaid government workers will be included in tomorrow's payroll counts (though contractor layoffs could weigh in some industries)


  • estimate the unemployment rate increased one tenth to 4.0% in January … mostly reflecting the furlough of nearly 400k federal workers that the BLS plans to classify as "unemployed on temporary layoff."
  • expect average hourly earnings will increase 0.2% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year