What are the seasonal trends in markets in October
Seasonals are disliked because they really shouldn't work. But they do and my belief is that it's always better to know the story rather than be left in the dark. It's just one piece of the big picture but it's something to put into the equation.
Here are some highlights for October, based on the past decade
The Oct/Nov is the best two month period for the US dollar index
Not surprisingly, it's also the worst two month period for EUR/USD
It's the fourth worst month for GBP/USD, but be careful because it's all about Brexit right now
Oct is the third-worst month for gold
The commodity currencies tend to struggle in October and November, along with the trend of seasonal weakness in oil
October is the best month on the calendar for USD/CAD. But it's not every year you get a NAFTA deal on Oct 1. USD/CAD is already up 2% mtd.
Oct is a flat month for USD/JPY but you might look to buy a dip because Nov is very strong
Oct/Nov/Dec are all positive for stocks.
