USDJPY ending the week on a high note as it rallied strongly in the NY afternoon. The price finally found resistance against the 200 hour MA at the 82.87 level. A move above this level will look toward the other highs for the week at the 83.17 and 83.37.
EURUSD
The EURUSD spent all but two hourly bars during the NY and London sessions above the 100 hour MA (@1.3327 currently). The price also held support against the 1.3309 area which had a number of support lows during the week there. These levels will be eyed in early trading next week. The range for the week was an uninspiring 194 pips (after a really slow 159 pips last week). ECB meeting, ISM/PMI data, and the US Unemployment numbers next week should shake the pair up next week, or so you would think.
USDCHF
For 4 1/2 days the USDCHF traded between 0.9091 and 0.9007. The 84 pips for that time period will have to give at some point. The bias is to the downside after the rally attempt on Thursday held the 200 hour MA, and the rally on Friday held the lower 100 hour MA. The only redeeming grace is a double bottom at 0.9007 (on Friday) and the EURCHF should be supported at the 1.2000 level (which should limit the USDCHF decline as well – or so you would think). Retail Sale (Monday), PMI (Monday), CPI (Thursday) are on tap for next week.
GBPUSD
The GBPUSD broke above the two month trading range on two separate days this week. The first try was on Tuesday. That failed against the always important 1.6000 level. On Friday, the price extended above the 1.6000 level but peaked near topside trendline at the 1.6037 level. (high reached 1.60353). The price closed at 4 PM at the 1.5993 area, below the Tuesday high/above the Feb high at 1.5990. There are many who are feeling “Why so high?” and maybe the 5 minute chart below is showing signs of topping with the 100 and 200 bar MA coming togther and starting to turn over. Nevertheless, the early trade in the new week, may be needed to cast the final vote.
Next week, the PMI (Monday), PMI services (Wednesday), BOE Interest Rate announcement (Thursday), are event highlights next week.
AUDUSD
The AUDUSD closed below the 200 and 100 day MA (green and blue line in the chart above) for the first time since January 17th. A trendline started at the the low going back to October 4th was broken on Thursday but failed. The trendline may be tested again on Monday and a break below may more damaging. Conversely a move above the 100 and 200 day MAs should be a signal for the bulls to get back in. Key time for the AUDUSD. China PMI will be released over the weekend and will cast the vote for the bulls and the bears. The expectations is for 50.8. The RBA will have an interest rate decision on Tuesady at 12:30 AM. Retail Sales on Monday at 9:30 PM and the Trade Balance Tuesday.
EURJPY
EURJPY ended the week strongly – moving above the 200 and 100 hour MAs and above the channel trendline (acceleration of the trend). The good news is that is bullish. The bad news is if the acceleration does not continue and the price moves back into the channel, the market can become disappointed. Nevertheless, the week ends with a bullish bias.