About that China trade data on Tuesday - less upbeat than meets the eye

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

Capital Economics have a piece on the data from China yesterday

CE not impressed:
  • less upbeat than meets the eye
  • more a reflection of base and price effects than of current strength
  • And while the outlook for exports is improving, domestic demand will remain subdued. 
But ...
  • Looking ahead, a gradual recovery in GDP growth among China's trading partners should help to put a floor beneath exports this year. 
  • The "Phase One" US-China trade deal due to be signed this week will also help at the margin. Import growth may not rise much further, however, given the continued headwinds to domestic demand. 
  • Instead, any step up in imports from the US as a result of the trade deal will probably come at the expense of imports from elsewhere.

I bolded that bit … OZ and NZ might want to take note …. 
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