About that China trade data on Tuesday - less upbeat than meets the eye

Capital Economics have a piece on the data from China yesterday

• (ICYMI) China December trade data shows exports rise 9% y/y

CE not impressed:

• less upbeat than meets the eye
• more a reflection of base and price effects than of current strength
• And while the outlook for exports is improving, domestic demand will remain subdued.

But ...

• Looking ahead, a gradual recovery in GDP growth among China's trading partners should help to put a floor beneath exports this year.
• The "Phase One" US-China trade deal due to be signed this week will also help at the margin. Import growth may not rise much further, however, given the continued headwinds to domestic demand.
• Instead, any step up in imports from the US as a result of the trade deal will probably come at the expense of imports from elsewhere.

I bolded that bit … OZ and NZ might want to take note ….