About that China trade data on Tuesday - less upbeat than meets the eye
Capital Economics have a piece on the data from China yesterday
CE not impressed:
- less upbeat than meets the eye
- more a reflection of base and price effects than of current strength
- And while the outlook for exports is improving, domestic demand will remain subdued.
- Looking ahead, a gradual recovery in GDP growth among China's trading partners should help to put a floor beneath exports this year.
- The "Phase One" US-China trade deal due to be signed this week will also help at the margin. Import growth may not rise much further, however, given the continued headwinds to domestic demand.
- Instead, any step up in imports from the US as a result of the trade deal will probably come at the expense of imports from elsewhere.
I bolded that bit … OZ and NZ might want to take note ….