Jim Rogers predicted a 100% chance of a recession at this time last year
You can be right on the trade but wrong on the reasons why.
At this time last year Jim Rogers said a US recession within a year was a 100% certainty. He said sluggish or slowing economies in China, Japan, and the euro zone meant there were many possible channels of contagion.
He said the trade was to be long the US dollar.
"It might even turn into a bubble," he said of the greenback. "I mean, if markets around the world are crashing, let's just say that scenario happens, everybody's going to put their money in the U.S. dollar-it could turn into a bubble."
So far the only really good USD trade was against the pound, where it gained 14.5% but that was more about the Brexit vote. In the past year, most currencies have been remarkably stable. The US dollar is up 4.1% against the euro and 1.8% against the yen. A better trade at this time last year would have been to buy the kiwi, it's up 2.5% against USD and is the best performer year-over-year despite its recent swoon.
What's the latest from Rogers?
More of the same. In February he said he was buying dips in gold and warning that "we're going 'to have the worst economic problems we've had in your lifetime or my lifetime'
