Coming up today in the US ahead of Jackson Hole speeches from

  • Fed Chair Janet Yellen at 10am NY time (1400GMT)
  • Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank at 3pm NY time (1900GMT)

is July Durable Goods Orders (Preliminary)

  • due at 0830 NY time, which is 1230GMT
  • expected -6.0%, prior +6.4% m/m

For the 'ex-transportation' result:

  • expected 0.4%, prior 0.1%

Capital goods and Wholesale inventories data out at the same time.

Previews via ...

UBS:

  • A drop in aircraft orders and likely weakness in auto orders probably weakened durable goods orders in July. However, we forecast solid capex orders-a 0.5% m/m rebound in orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft after a stall in June. Those capex orders rose at a 31⁄2% q/q annual rate in Q2. Our forecast would boost that pace slightly at the start of Q3-consistent with momentum in equipment investment in the GDP accounts.

Barclays:

  • We look for July durable goods orders to fall by 8.0% m/m, driven by an outsized decline in transportation. Motor vehicles and parts are likely to be down on the month, as indicated by motor vehicle and parts production in the July industrial production report. In addition, nondefense aircraft orders should retrace much of last month's 131% increase; we forecast a 71% m/m decline in this category. Durable goods ex-transportation should be down a more modest 0.5% m/m, with core capital goods orders down 0.2% m/m.

HSBC:

  • Durable goods orders rose 6.4% in June, led by a big jump in aircraft orders. Aircraft orders appear to have fallen back in July, and we forecast a 6.0% drop in durable goods orders. We forecast a 0.2% increase for durable orders excluding transportation equipment.