Jan — MNI analysts survey — Dec Revised from
lowest median highest
———————————————————————
Econ Sentiment 93.4 92.7 93.9 95.2 92.8 93.3
Industry -7.2 -7.3 -6.3 -5.0 -7.2 -7.1
Services -0.6 -2.0 -1.3 0.0 -2.6 -2.1
Consumers -20.7 na na na -21.3 -21.1
Retail -15.5 na na na -12.2 -11.7
Construction -28.3 na na na -28.9 -25.2
———————————————————————
Business Climate: -0.21 -0.29 -0.22 0.00 -0.32 -0.31
PARIS (MNI) – Economic morale in the Eurozone recovered less than
generally expected in January, as the improvement in the services and
for consumers was largely offset by a further erosion in retailing and
construction, the European Commission said Monday.
After a 14-point slide last year, the Commission’s sentiment index
edged up slightly for the first time in 11 months, regaining 0.6 point
to 93.4.
Alongside the timid upturn in other leading indicators of late,
this suggests that the worst may be over for the second slump in less
than five years. However, the marked slowdown in global economic
activity this year and the daunting consolidation efforts required in
the Eurozone point to an extended period of convalescence ahead.
Among the largest economies, sentiment improved in Germany (+2.3
points) and Spain (+1.8), but deteriorated in France (-2.1), Italy
(-1.1) and the Netherlands (-1.0). Only in Germany is the index above
average.
Contrary to most forecasts, industry morale failed to follow the
lead of other indicators, stagnating just above the 19-month low reached
in November. While firms’ assessment of past production and export order
books improved, their outlook for production was unchanged and their
view of total orders weakened.
By contrast, the Commission’s separate Business Climate Indicator
rose for the second month in a row, gaining 0.11 point after a
0.10-point upturn in December. Here again it was past output, export
demand and stock levels that brightened morale.
The Eurozone factory PMI also rebounded in January, regaining 1.8
points to a five-month high of 48.7. While output appeared to stabilize
after the contraction in the second half of last year, new orders
continued to decline (46.4).
Sentiment in the services improved the most in January, rebounding
two points from December’s two-year low. Service providers noted an
improvement in recent demand and sales and expected the trend to
continue in the near term.
Morale in the financial services, which is not seasonally adjusted,
bounced back more sharply with a 9.1-point jump to a four-month high,
driven by stronger recent demand and activity and brighter prospects for
the future.
Like the industry PMI, the services PMI also improved somewhat in
January. Activity picked up marginally (50.5) for the first time since
August, but new business declined further (48.5), though at the slowest
pace in five months.
The Commission’s flash estimate for consumer sentiment was revised
down marginally to show a 0.6-point monthly upturn to -20.7 — still
eight points below the long-term average. Households’ assessment of
recent economic trends was less negative and unemployment fears subsided
somewhat. Although expectations for future finances eroded further,
consumers hoped to be able to save more and buy more big-ticket items.
Retail sentiment fell 3.2 points to the lowest level in 31 months,
reflecting weaker recent turnover and much weaker near-term prospects.
In construction, morale recovered slightly, regaining 0.6 point
after a 2.9-point downturn in December on the back of stronger recent
activity.
–Paris newsroom +331 4271 5540; email: ssandelius@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$XDS$,M$X$$$,MT$$$$]
