Seasonally adjusted results:
February: +E3.3 billion
MNI survey median: +E3.3 billion
MNI survey range: +E2.0 bln to +E4.2 bln
January: +E1.9 bln
December: +E3.4 bln
November: +E3.7 bln
October: +E3.5 bln
September: +E0.8 bln
Non-seasonally adjusted results:
February: +E2.6 billion
January: -E9.0 bln (revised from -E8.9)
December: +E4.0 bln (revised from +E4.1)
November: +E3.9 bln (revised from +E3.8)
October: +E6.7 bln (revised from +E6.6)
September: -E0.1 bln (revised from +E0.0)
—
FRANKFURT (MNI) – The Eurozone’s trade surplus came in as generally
expected in February, as the rebound in exports overtook continued
import growth, Eurostat reported on Friday.
Exports gained 2.7% on the month in February, more than retracing
the previous month’s dip, while imports rose 1.5%, resulting in a trade
surplus of E3.3 billion.
Without adjusting for seasonality, the trade balance came to +E2.6
billion, leaving the year-to-date figure at -E6.3 billion compared to
-E13.2 billion recorded during the same period one year ago.
The ongoing global recovery, inventory rebuilding and a softer euro
helped to boost export order growth to its highest level in almost 10
years, according to March’s purchasing managers index (PMI), which is
based on a survey of Eurozone manufacturers.
Firms polled by the European Commission also highlighted the
improvement in export order books, which helped to lift export volume
expectations above the long-term average to their highest since
mid-2008.
Manufacturing orders in Germany surprised to the upside in
February, as ongoing strength in foreign demand offset weakness at home.
Looking ahead, manufacturers continue to view their export outlook
favourably, with expectations still at their highest level since
December 2007, the Ifo institute noted.
Analysts and market participants polled by the Centre for European
Economic Research (ZEW) were also optimistic regarding foreign demand,
with Germany’s export-related industries expected to be the main drivers
of economic growth.
Morale in French industry rose more than expected in March, due in
large part to the strong recovery in foreign demand, which was spread
across most major sectors, the national statistics agency, Insee,
reported late last month.
Italian manufacturers also grew less pessimistic regarding their
foreign orders, ISAE surveys show. However, a strong majority still sees
demand from abroad trending below normal.
A growing number of analysts and market participants expect the
dollar to depreciate against the euro, ZEW’s latest survey shows,
suggesting that the currency-related benefit to exporters may wane.
However, continued uncertainty regarding Greece’s financial
situation, despite the recent announcement of E30 billion in contingency
loans for the country, have kept a lid on sustainable gains in the
currency. The euro is currently trading at $1.3545.
The benefit to the trade balance from stronger exports is likely to
be further offset by firming domestic demand, as demonstrated by six
consecutive increases in imports of goods and the further strengthening
of service imports in January, the European Central Bank reported.
Rising oil prices could also weigh on trade figures by boosting
import costs. Last week, oil reached an 18-month high and remains well
above $80 per barrel.
–Frankfurt newsroom +49-69-720142; e-mail: frankfurt@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$X$$$,M$XDS$]
