Oct preliminary: 11.7%

MNI survey median: 11.7%
MNI survey range 11.6% to 11.7%

Previous: Sep 11.6%, Aug 11.5%, Jul 11.5%, Jun 11.4%, May 11.3%

PARIS (MNI) – The number of unemployed people in the Eurozone rose
more sharply in October than in the previous month, lifting the jobless
rate to a new high of 11.7%, as expected, according to seasonally
adjusted data released Friday by Eurostat.

The monthly rise in number of unemployed picked up to 173,000 after
+155,000 in September. The record total of 18.703 million jobless was
more than two million higher than a year earlier. Close to one in four
persons under 25 were without work.

The jobless tide will continue to mount for many more months to
come as economic activity slumps, thereby dampening consumption further
and accentuating the cyclical downturn. The November PMI polls signaled
sustained job losses in industry (47.3) and faster downsizing in the
services (46.3).

Hiring intentions as measured by the European Commission recovered
slightly in November in industry and the services, while deteriorating
further in other sectors. Expectations were below average across the
board. Consumers’ jobless worries continued to mount.

The Commission expects some 700,000 more job losses next year and a
900,000 increase in the number of jobseekers. It hopes the labor market
will begin to recover the following year with the creation of 600,000
jobs and a 200,000 decline in the number of unemployed. The OECD sees
the jobless rate peaking at the end of next year, then descending
slightly over the course of 2014.

While Germany may remain one of the few sources of job gains in
coming months, even there the labor market is slowly coming to a
standstill. The jobless rate was unchanged at 5.4% in October, though
national data showed a monthly rise of 20,000. Seasonally-adjusted
unemployment rose another 5,000 in November, but not enough to boost the
jobless rate.

In France, the unemployment rate held firm at 10.7%. National data
showed a surge of 45,400 in registered jobseekers seeking full-time work
last month, nearly as much as the three-year record leap in September.
Leading indicators are bleak. The November PMI polls signaled only a
modest slowdown in job-shedding in industry (46.5) and services (47.3).
Hiring prospects are unfavorable in all key sectors, surveys by the
national statistics institute Insee show.

Italy’s jobless rate jumped 0.3 point to 11.1%, mirroring
September’s up-tick. The youth unemployment rate trended higher to
36.5%. Istat’s surveys show employment expectations deteriorating in
November in all sectors except construction, which posted a modest
correction after a steep downturn in October.

In Spain, where the meltdown in employment has been the most
dramatic, the jobless rate rose 0.4 point in October to a new record of
26.2%, up 3.5 points on the year. The rate for those under 25 rose 1.2
point m/m to 55.9%. The Commission’s surveys raise hopes that the worst
of the hemorrhaging may be coming to an end, as employment expectations
have come off lows of late in all sectors except the ailing construction
industry. But consumers remain to be convinced.

Among the smaller Eurozone states, only Ireland (14.7%) and Austria
(4.3%) saw their jobless rates fall, with rates for both shedding 0.1
point. The sharpest increase was noted in Cyprus (12.9%), where the rate
increased 0.6 point. The jobless rate for Greece (25.4%), for which the
most recent figures go until August, also showed an 0.6-point rise.
Rates were stable in Slovakia (14.0%) and Finland (7.7%).

— Paris newsroom +331 4271 5540; e-mail: ssandelius@mni-news.com

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