Seasonally adjusted results:

May preliminary: +E6.3 billion

MNI survey median: +E5.3 billion
MNI survey range: +E4.0 bln to +E7.5 bln

April revision: +E4.5 bln (+E6.2 bln)
March revision: +E4.4 bln (+E3.7 bln)
February revision: +E2.0 bln (+E3.9 bln)
January revision: +E4.7 bln (+E5.2 bln)
December revision: +E7.4 bln (+E6.9 bln)

Non-seasonally adjusted results:

May preliminary: +E6.9 billion
April revision: +E3.7 bln (+E5.2 bln)
March revision: +E7.2 bln (+E7.5 bln)
February revision: +E1.9 bln (+E2.0 bln)
January unrevised: -E8.7 billion
December revision: +E8.8 bln (+E8.9 bln)
–

PARIS (MNI) – Eurozone exports recovered slightly in May in
seasonally adjusted terms, while imports declined for the third month in
a row, boosting the trade surplus to a five-month high of E6.3 billion,
according to preliminary estimates released Monday by Eurostat.

Most analysts had expected the merchandise goods surplus to narrow
from the initial estimate for April, which was revised down by E1.7
billion to +E4.5 billion.

Exports edged up 0.3% on the month after a 1.4% downturn in April.
Imports were down 0.9% after -1.5%. The average two-month adjusted
surplus widened to E5.4 billion from E3.7 billion in 1Q, pointing to
another positive contribution to quarterly GDP growth.

Without solid contributions to growth from foreign trade, the
Eurozone would have been in recession for over a year.

In unadjusted terms, the trade balance climbed to E6.9 billion from
E3.7 billion in April. Exports bounced back 7.0% on the month and were
5.6% higher on the year. Imports rebounded 4.9% on the month and were
0.2% above the previous-year level. Results for the first five months of
the year showed a trade surplus of E11.0 billion compared to a deficit
of E24.5 billion a year earlier, with exports up 7.4% on the year and
imports up 2.3%.

Unadjusted data for January-April show the Eurozone’s energy
imports up 16% on the year, boosting the five-month energy deficit to
E123.0 billion. Raw material imports were 5% lower on the year for a
trade shortfall of E12.1 billion. Manufactured goods exports were 7%
higher on the year for a surplus of E126.9 billion. Exports to China
were up 9% on the year, while imports were down 3%.

The factory PMIs show export orders contracting over the past year,
with an accelerating decline from February to June (43.5), led by sharp
declines in Greece and Germany.

Manufacturers’ assessment of export order books has eroded markedly
since March to below-average levels and expected export volumes have
been cut back sharply, the European Commission’s surveys show. While the
dive of the euro, which has slipped below $1.22 for the first time since
2010, should bolster price competitiveness, global demand is losing
steam.

The IMF expects global trade to expand by only 4.0% in real terms
this year after +5.8% in 2011. While demand from emerging economies
would remain fairly robust (+8.4% after +8.8%), external demand in
advanced economies would be more sluggish (+1.8% after +4.3%), dampening
the pace of export growth in advanced countries (+2.3% after +5.3%).

The French and Italian statistics agencies and Germany’s Ifo
institute expect that demand from emerging countries will pick up at the
end of this year, which could help stabilize Eurozone activity in 4Q
after two quarters of shallow recession.

On the import side, prospects for a contraction in Eurozone
activity in 2Q and 3Q suggest that import demand will remain subdued as
well. Stabilizing oil prices and cheaper commodities should lighten the
import bill. The IMF has forecast a 14% decline in non-oil commodity
costs this year.

With global trade losing steam, the Commission expects Eurozone
export growth to slow to 0.9% this year from 2.5% last year. With
imports rising only 0.2% after +1.5%, foreign trade would add 0.8 point
to full-year GDP growth after a full-point contribution last year.

–Paris newsroom +331 4271 5540; email: ssandelius@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,M$XDS$,MTABLE]