Seasonally adjusted results:
October: +E300 million
MNI survey median: +E100 million
MNI survey range: -E2.8 bln to +E900 mln
September: +E2.2 bln (revised from +E2.1 bln)
August: -E1.0 bln (revised from -E1.2 bln)
July: -E3.1 bln (unrevised)
June: -E2.3 bln (unrevised)
May: -E1.1 bln (revised from -E1.2 bln)
Non-seasonally adjusted results:
October: +E1.1 billion
September: +E2.7 bln (revised from +E2.9 bln)
August: -E4.5 bln (revised from -E4.4 bln)
July: +E2.4 bln (revised from +E2.5 bln)
June: +E0.3 bln (revised from E0.0 bln)
May: -E0.4 bln (unrevised)
FRANKFURT (MNI) – The Eurozone trade surplus shrank less than
generally expected in October, while results for September and August
were revised upwards, Eurostat reported on Friday.
Eurozone exports fell 1.9% in October after a 1.1% drop in
September, while imports slipped 0.7% after -3.2%. As a result, the
seasonally adjusted trade surplus shrank to E300 million from E2.2
billion in September.
Compared to 3Q, exports were down 1.4%. The decline in imports was
a sharper 2.0% versus the previous quarter.
In unadjusted terms, the trade surplus narrowed to E1.1 billion
from September’s downwardly revised +E2.7 billion. Exports increased 6%
on the year, while imports gained 7%.
The deficit in energy trade over the first nine months of 2011
reached E237.3 billion, up E46.0 billion from the same period in 2010.
The trade deficit in raw materials rose by E8.1 billion to E34.1
billion. The manufacturing goods trade surplus came to E228.1 billion,
up E44.9 billion compared to the first three quarters of last year.
While robust growth in many emerging economies is likely to support
global economic activity, slowdowns in a number of key Eurozone export
markets are expected, which could hamper trade further in the coming
months. Further risks stem from the ongoing debt crisis and uncertainty
over what it will take for the crisis to be solved.
Firms cited in PMI surveys reported continued deterioration in new
export orders in November and December. A European Commission survey
showed manufacturers’ assessment of export order books falling to a
14-month low in November.
Recent exchange rate developments could help offset some downside
risks over time. Since September, the euro has depreciated against the
U.S. dollar and the British pound, making Eurozone exports cheaper and
thus more competitive in key markets.
The latest forecasts of the French statistics institute Insee see
Eurozone exports contracting by 0.5% in 4Q, before recovering modestly
by 0.1% and 0.4% in 1Q and 2Q, respectively. However, with imports
projected to fall by an even sharper 0.7% in 4Q and slip an additional
0.3% in 1Q before rising 0.1% in 2Q, foreign trade would add 0.1 to 0.2
point to GDP growth in each quarter.
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