Seasonally adjusted results:

Sept preliminary: +E2.1 billion

MNI survey median: -E1.6 billion
MNI survey range: -E1.7 bln to +E1.0 bln

August: -E1.2 bln (-E1.0 bln)
July: -E3.1 bln (-E3.7 bln)
June: -E2.7 bln (-E2.9 bln)
May: -E1.2 bln (-E1.5 bln)
April: -E2.5 bln (-E2.6 bln)

Non-seasonally adjusted results:

Sept preliminary: +E2.9 billion

August: -E4.4 bln (-E3.4 bln)
July: +E2.5 bln (unrevised)
June: E0.0 bln (unrevised)
May: -E0.4 bln (unrevised)
April: -E4.6 bln (unrevised)
March: +E1.5 bln (unrevised)

FRANKFURT (MNI) – The Eurozone’s trade posted a largely unexpected
surplus of E2.1 billion in seasonally adjusted terms in September, as
imports fell much faster than exports, Eurostat reported on Tuesday.

September’s preliminary estimate compares to an MNI analysts survey
median forecast of a E1.6 billion deficit.

After rising 4.1% in August, seasonally adjusted exports dropped
1.0% in September to E146.4 billion. Imports fell 3.2% to E144.3 billion
after a 2.7% rise in August. Compared to the second quarter
average, exports were up 1.7%, while imports gained +0.7%.

Without adjusting for seasonal trends, the trade balance showed a
surplus of E2.9 billion after a E4.4 billion deficit in August. Exports
were up 10% on the year and imports up 8%.

The energy trade deficit for the January-August period amounted to
a non-adjusted -E212.9 billion compared to -E170.5 billion in the
same period a year earlier.

Trade in raw materials for the first eight months of the year
showed a deficit of -E30.4 billion versus -E22.5 billion in the 2010
period. The manufacturing goods surplus increased to E198.2 billion from
+E162.1 billion in the year-earlier period.

Forward-looking data suggest the slowdown in international trade
has intensified in recent months. According to Markit’s Eurozone
manufacturing PMI survey, new orders and new export orders contracted in
October at the fastest rates in almost two-and-a-half years. The decline
accelerated everywhere except in Ireland and the Netherlands.

The European Commission expects global trade to remain sluggish in
the second half and full-year growth to slow to just over 5% next year
from 6.5% expected this year.

“The ongoing financial market turmoil puts the financing of trade
to risk, the increased uncertainty could delay spending and investment
decisions,” it said last week. “The experience of the initial phase of
the crisis suggests that tighter credit conditions, as currently
observed, may further weigh on trade.”

As a result, Eurozone export growth is seen slowing markedly next
year to 3.4% from 6.1% this year. While commodity prices are expected to
retreat only gradually and oil to remain over $100 per barrel, sluggish
domestic demand would dampen import growth from 4.8% to 3.0%. Foreign
trade would thus add 0.2 point to full-year GDP growth after +0.6 point
expected this year.

The Commission did acknowledge that global growth could prove more
resilient than projected in its baseline scenario and provide support to
exports. A larger decline in commodity prices could enhance real incomes
and consumption.

— Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email:–