Seasonally adjusted results:

Sept preliminary: +E11.3 billion

MNI survey median: +E8.6 billion
MNI survey range: +E8.5 bln to +E8.9 bln

August revision: +E8.9 bln (+E9.9 bln)
July revision: +E7.1 bln (+E7.2 bln)
June revision: +E9.3 bln (+E9.5 bln)
May unrevised: +E6.7 bln
April revision: +E5.0 bln (+E4.9 bln)

Non-seasonally adjusted results:

Sept preliminary: +E9.8 billion
August revision: +E5.2 bln (+E6.6 bln)
July revision: +E14.4 bln (+E14.7 bln)
June revision: +E13.4 bln (+E13.7 bln)
May revision: +E7.3 bln (+E7.4 bln)
April revision: +E4.2 bln (+E4.3 bln)
—

PARIS (MNI) – Eurozone imports fell faster than exports in
September in seasonally adjusted terms, which boosted the trade surplus
to a series high of E11.3 billion, according to preliminary estimates
released Friday by Eurostat.

Imports fell back 2.7% on the month to E147.2 billion after a 2.3%
rebound in August. Exports were down 1.1% to E158.5 billion after +3.3%.
Average exports in 3Q were up 1.5% from 2Q, while imports gained 1.3%,
boosting the 3Q surplus to E27.3 billion from E21.0 billion in 2Q.

The 3Q results support evidence from national data that foreign
trade limited the contraction of Eurozone GDP in 3Q. Indeed, without
solid contributions to growth from foreign trade, the Eurozone would
have already been in recession for over a year.

In unadjusted terms, the trade surplus rebounded from a four-month
low of E5.2 billion in August to E9.8 billion in September, for a rise
of E8.1 billion on the year. Exports rose 1.6% on the month and were
1.4% higher on the year. Imports declined 1.4% on the month and were
4.1% below the previous-year level. Results for the first nine months of
the year showed a trade surplus of E54.6 billion compared to a deficit
of E24.8 billion a year earlier, with exports up 8.0% on the year and
imports up 1.8%.

Unadjusted data for January-August show the Eurozone’s energy
imports up 12% on the year, boosting the eight-month energy deficit to
E236.1 billion. Raw material imports were 5% lower on the year for a
trade shortfall of E25.3 billion. Manufactured goods exports were 8%
higher on the year for a surplus of E279.8 billion. Exports to China
were up 8.5% on the year, while imports were down 1.3%.

With domestic demand contracting as fiscal policy tightens, foreign
trade is likely to be the primary motor of Eurozone economic growth over
the medium term. Yet foreign demand is losing steam. The IMF now expects
a greater slowdown in imports by emerging economies this year and next,
while imports by advanced economies next year would regain only about
half the momentum lost this year.

The factory PMIs continue to flag falling export orders, albeit at
a slightly slower pace in October (45.3) than during the summer.
Eurozone manufacturers’ assessment of export order books in October
slumped to its lowest level in 30 months, according to a European
Commission survey. Producers deem that their competitive position in
overseas markets is deteriorating and are more worried about near-term
export volumes than any time in the last three years.

Yet anemic domestic production and the drawdown in inventories may
dampen imports even more. This was no doubt the case in 3Q and will be
crucial to limiting the Eurozone recession until domestic demand regains
traction, hopefully sometime next year. Prices for non-fuel commodity
imports are coming down and the IMF expects a further retreat next year.
Oil market fundamentals and futures prices also point to some easing in
prices over the medium term.

The Commission sees Eurozone exports outpacing imports next year
+3.4% to +2.4%. The half-point boost from foreign trade would be the
sole motor of economic expansion, offsetting a small drag from cutbacks
in public spending to give average full-year GDP growth of 0.4%.

–Paris newsroom +331 4271 5540; email: ssandelius@mni-news.com

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