Flash Jun HICP: flat m/m, +0.8% y/y
MNI median forecast: +0.1% m/m, +1.0% y/y
MNI forecast range: flat to +0.3% m/m
Final May HICP: +0.1% m/m, +1.2% y/y
————–
Flash Jun CPI: +0.1% m/m, +0.9% y/y
MNI median forecast: +0.1% m/m, +0.9% y/y
MNI forecast range: -0.1% to +0.2% m/m
Final May CPI: +0.1% m/m, +1.2% y/y
————–
BERLIN (MNI) – German consumer prices in June rose 0.1% in national
terms and were flat in EU-harmonized terms, with annual rates standing
at +0.9% for CPI and +0.8% for HICP, the Federal Statistical Office
(FSO) estimated Monday.
The median forecasts in a MNI survey of analysts were for a 0.1%
monthly rise of both CPI and HICP and for a annual rise of 0.9% for CPI
and of 1.0% for HICP.
As usual, the Federal Statistics Office provided few details on
price developments with the flash release. It pointed to data from
reporting states which showed that annual price developments were again
driven by marked price hikes for heating oil and motor fuel while
downward pressure came from gas prices.
Inflation rates will likely remain near their current levels for
the coming months given the huge spare capacity in the German economy,
economists believe. Wage growth in all likelihood will remain subdued.
Trade unions so far this year have settled for moderate wage deals.
Deflation risks are still relatively low, analysts argue, noting
that the weak euro exchange rate is making imports more expensive. They
also point out that corporate selling price expectations have turned
around recently.
Others, however, reckon that imported inflation is offset by strong
downward pressure on underlying domestic prices and warn that deflation
remains a threat for the Eurozone as a whole.
The Bundesbank earlier this month forecast German average inflation
of +1.2% this year and +1.6% next year.
–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$G$$$,M$X$$$,MAGDS$,M$XDS$,MT$$$$]
