Flash Oct HICP: flat m/m, +2.8% y/y

MNI median forecast: +0.1% m/m, +2.9% y/y
MNI forecast range: -0.1% to +0.1% m/m

Final Sep HICP: +0.2% m/m, +2.9% y/y
————–
Flash Oct CPI: flat m/m, +2.5% y/y

MNI median forecast: +0.1% m/m, +2.6% y/y
MNI forecast range: -0.1% to +0.1% m/m

Final Sep CPI: +0.1% m/m, +2.6% y/y
————–

BERLIN (MNI) – German consumer prices in October were unchanged
both in national and in EU-harmonized terms, with the annual rate
standing at +2.8% for HICP and +2.5% for CPI, the Federal Statistical
Office (FSO) estimated Thursday.

The median forecasts in an MNI survey of analysts were for a 0.1%
monthly rise of both CPI and HICP.

As usual, the Federal Statistics Office provided few details on
price developments with the flash release. It pointed to data from
reporting states which showed that heating oil, hotel and restaurant
prices were up on the month, while food prices held firm and package
holidays, along with motor fuels prices, were lower.

As usual, the strong upward pressure on the annual rate stemmed
from the energy components of the index, including heating oil and fuel.

Inflation pressures in Germany are expected to ease over the coming
months on the back of a deteriorating economic outlook.

Business morale in Germany cooled further in October, reaching its
lowest level since July 2010, with businesses revising down their
assessments of both the current situation and the near-term outlook in
Germany, the Ifo institute reported last week. After a 7.0-point slide
since June, Ifo’s overall sentiment indicator fell another 1.0 point to
106.4.

Germany’s DIW economic research institute on Wednesday predicted a
stagnation of German GDP in the fourth quarter. Due to the Eurozone’s
sovereign debt crisis, German consumers as well as businesses will
likely delay long-term spending and investment decisions, the
Berlin-based institute said.

The German finance ministry said last week that while the recent
rise of core inflation in Germany might be partly due to firms passing
on higher labor costs to consumers, the weakening global economy will
likely lead to easing imported inflation pressure.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com

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