–Ex Auto & Gas +0.6%; Autos-Parts -1.1%, Gasoline +1.4%
By Joseph Plocek
WASHINGTON (MNI) – U.S. January retail sales printed +0.4%
overall, +0.7% excluding autos, and +0.6% excluding autos and gasoline,
in a positive but disappointing start to Q1. The median estimate in the
Market News International poll of economists was for the overall number
to print +0.8%.
January sales were held down by -0.2% in furniture and -0.3%
healthcare as well as flat clothing sales and -1.1% autos (even though
new unit sales as reported by manufacturers were strong, parts and
used autos were probably weaker). Nonstore retailers printed -1.1%.
The entire month’s gain was in the seasonal adjustment, as is usual
after the holiday shopping season ends. This adjustment added about +11%
to overall sales. November-December levels also were revised lower.
Still, the January sales gain began Q1 with forward momentum.
However, a large January CPI number could mean the real advance is very
modest, on the order of +0.1% or +0.2%.
Electronics printed +0.5%, building materials +0.2%, food +1.3%,
sporting goods +1.1%, restaurants +0.6% and gas +1.4%. These areas among
the gainers had their best results since mid-2011. In some cases like
electronics and sporting goods, the gain simply offset dips in December,
but in others it suggests on-going consumer strength.
General merchandise stores, which include department stores and
warehouse clubs, printed +2.0%. That’s the biggest gain since Dec. 2006,
and it shows a grab for bargains.
One core measure of sales, overall sales excluding autos, gas, and
building materials (all of which enter GDP through other proxies)
printed +0.66% in January. That is a fair start to Q1.
**Market News International Washington Bureau: (202)371-2121**
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