Final HICP

September: +0.2% m/m, +2.9% y/y (revised from +0.1%; +2.8%)

August: flat m/m, +2.5% y/y

Final CPI

September: +0.1% m/m, +2.6% y/y (unrevised)

August: flat m/m, +2.4% y/y

—

FRANKFURT (MNI) – German EU harmonized consumer price inflation was
revised up in September to +2.9% y/y, a three-year high, while prices
rose by a higher-than-expected 0.2% on the month, the Federal
Statistical Office reported on Thursday.

The preliminary estimates for national CPI, however, were confirmed
at +0.1% and +2.6% on the month and year, respectively.

The recovery in Brent crude in early September supported gains in
most energy components of the price index, including household energy
(+0.9% m/m, +9.8% y/y) and motor fuel (+2.8% m/m, +13.9% y/y). Excluding
energy, core CPI was down 0.1% between August and September, but up 1.5%
y/y.

Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices were unchanged on the month
to give an annual change of +3.1%. Alcoholic drinks and tobacco prices
managed a modest 0.1% rise for a 2.3% increase on the year.

Higher motor fuel prices helped to lift transport prices 0.8%
higher than in August and 5.4% higher y/y, while the end of summer
discounts led to a 5.1% monthly gain in clothing and shoe sales. The
annual rate came to +3.1%.

Indicators continue to point to easing pipeline price pressures in
Germany, including the latest PMIs, which showed lower input price
inflation in September. Output price inflation also weakened, as firms’
competed over dwindling levels of new business.

Selling price expectations across all major business sectors
slipped further in September, along with consumers’ view of price
developments in one year’s time, a European Commission survey noted.

Later this week, final inflation figures for the Eurozone will be
released. Estimates published late last month pointed to consumer prices
up 3.0% on the year in September, its strongest jump in nearly three
years and well above the European Central Bank’s price stability target.

“Looking ahead, inflation rates are likely to stay clearly above 2%
over the coming months but to decline thereafter,” ECB President
Jean-Claude Trichet said, noting that medium-term price development
risks were “broadly balanced”.

“It remains essential for monetary policy to maintain price
stability over the medium term, thereby ensuring a firm anchoring of
inflation expectations in the euro area in line with our aim of
maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium
term.”

— Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com —

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