–Imported Oil Price -$1.73/bbl on Avg; Gap With China -$27b
By Joseph Plocek
WASHINGTON (MNI) – U.S. July trade data improved on rebounding
exports, implying they will add to Q3 real growth.
July’s trade balance printed -$44.8 billion, a 13% improvement in
its biggest move since February 2009, and far narrower than expected, as
exports jumped +$6.2 billion after dropping for two months. Imports
printed -$0.5 billion.
The export gain was centered in +$1.7 billion in oil-related items,
but there were good gains elsewhere too. Capital goods posted +$2.2
billion (electronics and telecommunications rose at a good clip, with
civilian aircraft +$196 million), and autos posted +$1.3 billion.
Services exports also jumped $0.5 billion, due mainly to travel.
The import drop was mainly in oil, where price and volumes fell,
offset by +$2.9 billion in autos & parts in a Japan effect from
that country going back on-line.
Unadjusted trade gaps by country included: China at -$27 billion
(its worst since September 2010 as imports of capital goods gained)
after -$26.7 billion in June; Japan -$5.25 billion after -$4 billion in
an indication that the country continued its recovery from earthquake
damage as auto-related imports continued to gain; and OPEC -$11.9
billion after -$13.8 billion as imports from OPEC backed off.
It appears most of the exports went to the Euro area and to South
and Central America. The NSA trade gap with the former improved to -$7.7
billion in July from -$8.9 billion, and the balance with the lower
Americas improved to +$281 million in July from -$1.3 billion. July
exports to Central and South America were the highest on record at
$14.7 billion.
The real trade gap in July stands $2 billion narrower than the Q2
average, impling trade will add to growth. As a point estimate we’d put
this addition at least at 0.1 point.
**Market News International Washington Bureau: (202)371-2121**
[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MU$$$$,M$$FI$,MT$$$$,MAUDS$]
