–NSA Trade Bal with China -$22.3b, Japan -$3.6b, OPEC -$7.8b
By Joseph Plocek
WASHINGTON (MNI) – The U.S. May trade data show economic recovery
as trade flows pick up, and the deficit, now -$42.3 billion, will
probably increase as growth continues, cutting into U.S. GDP. Both
import and export levels recovered to the pace of Fall 2008.
May’s -$42.3 billion trade balance was the worst showing since
November 2008. Imports advanced $5.5 billion mainly on the back of gains
in goods, but exports were up a lesser $3.5 billion.
In imports, autos posted +$2.2 billion, computers +$1 billion, and
other consumer goods +$2.6 billion. In the latter, pharmaceuticals,
toys, and apparel gained.
But oil-related imports fell $3 billion as both price and volume
slipped. The average price per barrel of crude was off 16 cents to
$76.93, and volume was off about 8% to 9,033 thousand barrels per day
on average. Demand for imported oil seems to be running about 200
thousand BDP less than in Q2:2009, though monthly numbers are highly
volatile.
The exports gain included capital goods at +$2 billion and
especially reflected industrial and medical equipment gains. Exports of
consumer goods rose $345 million on rises in jewelry, coins, and
household items.
The real average trade balance for April-May stands about 7% wider
than its Q1 average. This will cut Q2 real growth by 0.1 point or more.
Not seasonally adjusted trade by country shows the balance with
China at -$22.3 billion (worst since October 2009) after -$19.3 billion
in April, with Japan -$3.6 billion after -$4.8 billion, with OPEC -$7.8
billion after -$9.3 billion, and with Mexico -$6.2 billion (worst since
May 2008) after -$5.3 billion.
The China numbers suggest most of the imported consumer goods
continue to originate in that country, while the detail data on Mexico
trade show a 24% surge in crude oil volume was largely responsible for
the deficit widening there.
**Market News International Washington Bureau: (202)371-2121**
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]
