Via Fairfax and elsewhere
JPMorgan:
- Confirms the view that the unemployment rate is overstating the strength in the labour market
- Alternative measures of spare capacity all still soft
NAB:
- Softer underbelly in the employment market
- Less vibrant than it was, will keep the RBA on alert
TD:
- The RBA is unlikely to interpret ... the unemployment rate as a sign of labour market strength
- As we said after yesterday's wages update, the Bank is focused on underemployment via a lack of hours worked
- Concerns within the RBA ... the 4th November Statement of Monetary Policy mentioned "underemployment" 14 times, a measure of excess capacity in the labour market where (especially male) employees would like to work more hours
CBA:
- Uncomfortably high level of labour underutilisation
- Elevated job security fears
- Downward pressure on wages 'and thus inflation' ... 'as such there may be more policy easing ahead in 2017'
UBS:
- A loss of momentum over recent months
- Jobs growth has halved since mid-year
- Significant spare capacity
- Early signs of a lift in hours-worked, a help to household income
Barclays:
- Today's report, marginally positive given the strong gain in full-time jobs
- Low wage growth
- Forward-looking indicators (ANZ job ads, NAB business survey) show some signs of improvement
- These indicators point to the resilience of Australia's job market into year-end, and if this trend holds up, we expect full-time job gains to outperform part-time gains in coming months
Capital Economics:
- We suspect that there is still a significant amount of spare capacity in the labour market
- As such, despite the recent surge in key commodity exports and probable rise in national income, we still expect that wage growth will probably remain subdued for some time yet
- Overall, alongside yesterday's news that wage growth fell to an all-time low, October's employment data are unlikely to allay the RBA's concerns about the strength of the labour market.
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Barclays a bit more optimistic than others in these responses ( & I also saw another optimistic assessment, from Commsec). I'm not sharing their upbeat take on the data.
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Added - ANZ analyst Justin Fabo questioning the questioners of weak full-time employment:
How suspect is the weakness in Oz full-time jobs? Not very. Roy Morgan household survey data corroborates it
