Via NZIER, the new Zealand Institute of Economic Research, their latest survey of economists.

  • Consensus Forecasts, December 2019

GDP growth outlook revised down slightly

  • 2019/20 GDP seen at 2.2% (from the previous survey at 2.3%

Citing:

  • key drivers of the downward revision were lower expectations of business investment and exports, which were partly offset by slightly stronger expectations of household spending. uncertain global growth outlook has dampened expectations for export growth
  • business confidence has fallen in the face of persistently weak profitability
  • businesses becoming more cautious about investment
  • consumer confidence remains positive …household spending growth should remain robust over the coming years
  • expectations for the labour market - lower employment and wage growth and a higher unemployment rate over the coming years
  • interest rate expectations have been revised higher for the coming year, but slightly lower beyond 2022.

more to come