Another week in the books. What have we learned?

EUR/USD is bid between 1.40 and 1.41 and offered between 1.4350 and 1.4450. That much we know.

Beyond that, I’m not sure we know that much more. Cash for clunkers seemed to have moderate impact on July data as industrial production rose for the first time since October but retail sales were weak. GDP was unimpressive in the States but faster than expected in Europe, though it seems as tough stimulus worked more quickly in Europe (where the Germans pioneered the Clunkers idea) .

So what we have is a choppy, uneven recovery. No real surprise there.

Keep focused on China. Should the Chinese miracle turn into a mirage, the reflation trade will be pressured making the dollar a beneficiary.