ANZ post a preview of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand May policy meeting, due on the 26th (2pm local time, which is 0200 GMT)
We are now forecasting the RBNZ to begin raising the OCR in August 2022
- with gradual but steady increases thereafter taking the OCR to 1.25% by the end of 2023
In the May Monetary Policy Statement, the RBNZ will again revise up its forecasts for GDP, employment and inflation
- However, consistent with its "least regrets" approach we expect the RBNZ will continue to signal that removal of policy stimulus remains a long way off. We expect the forecast OCR track (assuming it's published) to suggest perhaps the second half of 2023 for OCR lift-off
- We do not expect any changes to the LSAP or FLP programmes
- Markets are likely to seize on any change in language or forecasts in a less-dovish direction
ANZ cite medium-term inflation pressure as building
