From ANZ's 'FX Insight' piece for the week
- USD/JPY AT AN INFLATED LEVEL
- A turn in both the global inflation and growth pulse is becoming an increasing risk, and markets look vulnerable to a surprise on this front.
- US rates have been the most aggressive in pricing in the reflation trade and if some of this is unwound then USD/JPY looks very vulnerable to further weakness.
- We recommend selling USD/JPY at 110.55, targeting 106.50. We will reassess above 112.60.
The alert was issued with USD/JPY around 110.55, its popped above now which is a bonus.
More (again, summary)
- near term some downside risks building for yields
- Price action in commodity markets is suggesting that we are close to a peak for global headline inflation
- US rates have most aggressively priced in the rise in inflation
- JGBs have languished because of yield curve control
- This has likely consequences for the JPY. The weakness that we have seen in the JPY is almost entirely attributable to the move in US rates.