ANZ on the euro

  • has reached our pre-coronavirus Q1 target of 1.08 vs USD.
  • Severely limited reflationary policy room leaves the risks to the single currency skewed to the downside.
  • A re-test of the post-crisis lows at 1.04 is expected.

More:

  • We have downgraded our 2020 GDP forecasts for the euro area
  • COVID-19 related disruption will delay the anticipated recovery in global trade and Europe's manufacturing sector
  • Beyond the immediate concern around COVID-19 and more recently the outbreak in Italy, Europe faces structural challenges. Meeting ambitious climate change targets, digitalisation, aging demographics and changing trade patterns are major challenges.

(in summary from an ANZ note)

ANZ on the euro