ANZ oil strategy - expect prices to rise
A snippet from ANZ's latest on oil,
- replacement of Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister, Khalid Al-Falih, with Prince Abdulaziz al Salman ... We don't see the move as a prelude to significant change
- As OPEC and its allied producers (such as Russia) meet in Abu Dhabi, they face unprecedented uncertainty.
- … tension between the US and Iran/Venezuela continues to impact the market.
- trade tensions are now also weighing on manufacturing activity
- Global vehicle sales, a key determinant of gasoline demand are on track to fall 6% in 2019
- PMIs remain weak across the world
- We have subsequently reduced our forecast oil demand growth to 1mb/d this year (from 1.2mb/d)
- Even so, we see sizeable stock drawdowns in Q4. With crude oil well below Saudi Arabia's target of USD80/bbl, we feel they have no choice but to continue the current production cut agreement to help support current prices. However, the ability to push prices higher looks limited.
ANZ mention the meeting in Abu Dhabi today. Its a monitoring committee meeting bute yeah, there will be discussion of price, you can coutn on it.